Atlas Analytics’ Year in Review
Key predictions and successes heading into 2025
TLDR: Atlas Analytics successfully predicted Q3 2024 U.S. GDP growth and SPY market trends, marking key milestones in our first year. Our forecasting accuracy improved significantly with updated BEA data, and we formed strategic partnerships to position us for strong growth in 2025.
With 2024 in the rear-view mirror, Atlas Analytics finds itself on the cusp of an exciting new phase. From accurately predicting GDP growth to making prescient market calls, our inaugural year set the stage for even greater strides in forecasting and analytics. With the backing of new partnerships, investments, and a growing accuracy rate, we’re starting off 2025 with renewed confidence and ambition.
First, Atlas Analytics made two critical predictions in 2024: We forecasted Q3 2024 US GDP, and we made our first finance prediction for the SPY.
GDP Forecasting: Predicted 2.7% vs Actual of 3.1%
In early September, Atlas Analytics predicted Q3 2024 GDP at 2.7%, and on October 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced its first estimate of 2.8%, putting Atlas Analytics’ prediction with 0.1 percentage points of the actual. Although the final number was revised to 3.1% on December 19, this prediction demonstrates the power of Atlas Analytics’ algorithm ROY to forecast GDP using low Earth orbit satellite imagery.
Financial Markets Forecasting: Predicted the SPY at $570 vs $584 at Market Low
On December 1, we predicted the SPY (the ETF tracking the S&P 500) was overvalued by approximately 6%. At the time, the SPY was trading at nearly $603 per share, and we set a price target of $570. This forecast turned out to be prescient: the SPY dropped to a low of $584 just four weeks later on January 2 and remains well below its December 1 value (as of close of market on January 3). Our forecast of a 6% overvaluation in the SPY came at a time when market sentiment was high, driven by optimism over economic recovery and corporate earnings. However, market volatility in mid-December, fueled by concerns over interest rate hikes and global geopolitical tensions, led to a swift correction that validated our prediction.
In addition, Atlas Analytics experienced several other key successes in 2024:
Received Seed Investment from a Private Investor: In December, Atlas Analytics received its first external investment from a private investor as part of a pre-seed round.
Partnered with New World Economics to Forecast the Manufacturing Sector: Atlas Analytics announced a new partnership with New World Economics to provide cutting-edge GDP forecasts for the manufacturing sector. This collaboration strengthens our forecasting capabilities while also positioning us as a key player in the rapidly evolving manufacturing ecosystem where demand for real-time, data-driven insights is growing exponentially.
Contracted to Provide Financial Commentary with a Startup: Atlas Analytics was contracted by an AI startup to provide financial commentary for its large language model (LLM) beginning in January 2025.
Finally, the BEA’s recent data revision has improved Atlas Analytics GDP forecasting error rate, lowering the error rate to 0.6 percentage points from approximately 1.0 percentage points over the past 11 quarters. In September 2024, the BEA conducted its 2024 Annual Updates to the National Income and Product (NIPA) Accounts, the overarching statistical structure that measures U.S. GDP. In response, we have updated our Predictions page to reflect these new values.
Looking ahead to 2025, Atlas Analytics is well-positioned to continue its growth trajectory. We invite you to join us as we leverage our improved forecasting accuracy, expanding partnerships, and innovative solutions to meet evolving client needs. Whether you’re looking for data-driven insights or seeking a strategic partnership, we welcome the opportunity to collaborate with you.
Wishing you all a very happy and healthy 2025!
Jake